US election 2020: More Americans say coronavirus is their top issue. That should worry Trump


We have only seen a few elections since the polls began where the incumbent was eligible to run for re-election and the economy was not the most important issue, but those choices tell a consistent and worrying message to President Donald Trump. The one most trusted in the non-financial case is likely to win the election.

Right now, voters trust former Vice President Joe Biden over Trump over the coronavirus. In a new one Marist College vote, Biden is more preferred among voters when dealing with coronavirus with a margin of 56% to 40%. one NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll from earlier in April, Biden had preferred by 9 points.
The advantage Biden has in leading the effort against the virus comes at the same time as the swing state's opinion poll has improved. he is up in important swing states such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Trump probably wished he had the kind of poll Franklin Roosevelt had run into in the 1944 election. Thomas Dewey. Roosevelt would go on to win an outstanding fourth term.

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Trump is likely to settle for the number George W. Bush had ahead of his successful reelection efforts in 2004. Bush was more trusted than Democrat John Kerry on the Iraq war and terrorism. For example, the final Fox News poll found that Bush was more clear on Iraq by 6 points. The same poll had Bush up 12 points on who would do a better job of terrorism.

You have to go back 40 years to find a sitting president who lost out on today's big non-financial issues. In 1980, Republican Ronald Reagan was ahead of Democrat sitting Jimmy Carter on average 4 points on who was best at dealing with the Iranian hostage crisis. Keep in mind that these polls tended to underestimate Reagan's overall support, so the true margin on this question was probably higher. combined with job loss, all this proved too much for Carter to overcome.
Right now, the economy is shrinking. That Marist vote is one of the first I've seen where Biden led Trump on who would better handle the economy. Trump is likely to be blown up if he loses to Biden on both the economy and the coronavirus pandemic.

But let's say that the economy is seen as being in better shape at the time of the election. A look at the 1952 and 1968 elections suggests that Trump may not be enough.

Democrat incumbent Harry Truman in 1952 and Lyndon Johnson in 1968 did not even run for re-election during the Korean War and the Vietnam War respectively. Republican candidates, Dwight Eisehower and Richard Nixon, were cleared with double digits in Gallup polling over Democratic candidates, Adlai Stevenson and Hubert Humphrey, in those races to deal with the war effort. Republicans won both races.

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The economy was strong ahead of both of these elections. Nevertheless, the sitting party lost the parliamentary elections because they could not win in today's big non-financial issues.

Four years after Nixon took office, he was able to win another term because he was trusted more to deal with the Vietnam War by about 30 points than his Democratic opponent, George McGovern.

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For 2020, these choices suggest Trump is likely to need Americans to believe he has a good handle on the corona virus to beat Biden. Otherwise, he'll probably end up like Truman and Johnson: out of the office.

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