Crisis equals opportunity. And difficult roads often lead to incredible destinations. Ever? Sometimes?
Brutus for Cassius in Julius Caesar by William Shakespeare put it succinctly:
& # 39; There is a tide in the affairs of men (Nations), which, taken by the flood, lead to fortune. Omitted, the entire journey of his life is limited in shallow waters and miseries. In such a full sea we are now floating. And we must take the chain when it serves or lose our ventures & # 39; & # 39 ;.
In Greek rhetoric, it is called: & # 39; KAIROS & # 39 ;, that is, the ideal time for a significant strategic attack. One of the seven pillars of the STOIC philosophy is FLOW, the great stoics, instead of fighting the tide, the sages consciously work with these forces of need and circumstances.
Sometimes I soliloquize in my library the dangers of post-C-19: there is something that the government has up its sleeves – a magic wand that Nigerians don't yet know that makes the gravity of their response not match reality and gravity the danger that we are faced with? Putting it directly, is Nigeria ready for the social and economic consequences of a 25% reduction in the entire private sector workforce? Because that is what will probably happen: 25% of new unemployed to aggravate the existing 30 million unemployed!
In the USA, St. Louis Fed. The projection is 52.8 million or 32% job loss for the entire workforce in America.
In the UK, according to David Blanchflower, professor of economics and a member of the Bank's interest rate definition committee, unemployment has risen to 21% of the total workforce. He said: “There has never been such a concentrated trade collapse. The government has tried to respond, but has no idea of the scale of the problem it will have to deal with. We do some black-and-white calculations, and they're scary & # 39; & # 39 ;. Currently, 27% of companies in the UK, including the Richard Branson Empire, are laying off employees, despite British Chancellor Rishi Sunak's announcement of £ 330 billion loan guarantees and a program to pay 80% of staff in corporate payrolls.
Even in China, where the truth is as scarce as diamond, Liu Chenjie, chief economist at Upright Asset, fund manager, said: & # 39; & # 39; the pandemic may have taken 205 million Chinese into frictional unemployment, where they want to work, but cannot or are unable to return. to work. This represents about 25% of China's 775 million workforce. The official NBS data of 6% covers only the urban workforce of 442 million, but excludes 290 million migrant workers & # 39; & # 39 ;.
Here in Nigeria, in a video leaked on the eve of Workers' Day (4/30/2020), the CEO of a major bank in Nigeria said his bank will have no choice but to fire most of its workers and go digital in order to survive. In addition, a major airline in Nigeria is expected to offload around 90% of its entire workforce.
As workers resume on May 4, 2020, most of them will continue with NADA, for NADA and for NADA.
Chinese economist calls FRICIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT.
The hospitality sector is in a coma, the air transport sector in limbo. Private schools are facing existential threat, Restaurants in the ICU. Cinema in the emergency room. Sports in the orthopedic hospital. Name them….
In 2008 and 2016, when the crises were milder, some Nigerians entered the Lagos lagoon due to hopelessness.
Now, with this immense loss of jobs, we need a NATIONAL DIALOGUE. How do we stabilize companies so that they do not recklessly transport employees to the already saturated labor market?
* Nostradamus saw tomorrow, in fact, when he said in 1551 “that, in a twin year of 2020, a crown from China will transform the twilight of men to dust to destroy and ruin the world, ending the world economy as we know it. & # 39; & # 39 ;.
What lessons can Nigeria learn from America's BIG DEPRESSION?
On a cold and windy morning on Tuesday, October 29, 1929, the stock market crashed and drove Wall Street to an instant cardiac arrest. Millions of investors have lost their entire economy. The mass suicide followed. 25% of all wage earners in America have lost their jobs. But the signs were there all along that President Hoover ignored. There was an unequal distribution of wealth and purchasing power, decades of decline in agriculture, causing food shortages and international instability. In an instant, the recession turned into BIG DEPRESSION.
President Herbert Hoover's response was slow, indecisive and lethargic. He asked Americans to be patient and self-confident, without offering concrete measures to stop the nation from suffering hemorrhages. He called on companies not to withdraw their workers without providing a stimulus package to cushion the effect of the economic recession. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, his successor, describes President Hoover as "hears nothing, sees nothing, does nothing President" & # 39 ;.
The depression lasted 10 years (1929-1939), but in three years (1930-1933) more than 9,000 American banks collapsed, eroding more than $ 3 billion in depositors' funds.
FDR presented a bold, decisive and practical solution with the tag: FDR NEW DEAL & CULTURE. This new agreement redefined the government's role in American life. FDR worked with Congress to pass 15 laws, including the Agricultural Adjustment Act and the National Industrial Recovery Act.
In explaining the severity of the GREAT DEPRESSION to the Americans, FDR said: & # 39; We are going to wage a war against the emergency in the same way that we were in fact invaded by a foreign enemy. But let's realize that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself … & # 39; & # 39;
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1941 was a year of two dangers: the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor during World War II. The war stimulated American industry in an unprecedented way. Like Phoenix, America emerged from the ashes of THE GREAT DEPRESSION and World War II, took on a new life that made it the largest country on planet Earth. In a word, America, a child of circumstances, transformed by turning twin crises into opportunities. The United States displaced Britain, its former colonial master, to emerge as the world’s class captain and vetoed its GREEN BACK (USD) as the medium of international trade and trade today.
Question: will Nigeria seize the moment or allow this monumental crisis to be wasted, just as it wasted the opportunity for civil war? Wherever Nigeria is in the new world – Next level of abundance and stability or Next level of poverty and cascading crisis – it depends on our collective determination to change appropriately as the world changes.
From the feedbacks and responses I recently received from people around the world in my articles, I can categorize Nigerians into four distinct groups, using the four gear positions of my car as tags.
50% of Nigerians are already in what I call the gear position & # 39; & # 39; PARK & # 39; & # 39; (these are Nigerians who have disconnected mentally, have been disconnected – have given up on Nigeria entirely), the second category is the category “REVERSE & # 39; & # 39; (they have not just given up on Nigeria, but have reversed their nationality or are dumping Nigeria's nationality to other countries – they represent 20%), the third category are Nigerians in & # 39; The NEUTRAL gear position – these are taking the & # 39; & # 39; approach siddon look & # 39; & # 39; – they have not lost hope, but they are not enthusiastic about Nigeria; they represent 20%). The last group is the gear position & # 39; & # 39; DRIVE & # 39; & # 39; – these represent only 10% of the samples – are fanatical and resilient who still believe Nigeria's future is bright, but need to be reworked and reformulated. calibrated. The people in this DRIVE position are mostly religious who use faith as an anchor.
A situation in which only 10% of the sample population still believes in PROJECT Nigeria and 90% signed up mentally or physically for the project is a sign of how deep the problem is. No country with this kind of demographics or mentality can make any worthwhile progress. To be honest: of the 200 million inhabitants, only 10% or 20 million are Nigerians at heart in action and in words!
When I stumbled across the story of the 18th duck on social media, by an anonymous author – I saw an answer to unravel Nigeria's fate in history. I literally reproduced the story here below.
One father left 17 ducks as assets for his three children.
When the Father passed away, his children opened their will.
The Father's Will declared that the eldest son should receive half of the 17 ducks,
The middle child must receive 1/3 of the 17 ducks,
The youngest child should receive 1/9 of the 17 ducks
As it is not possible to divide 17 in half or 17 by 3 or 17 by 9, the children started to fight with each other.
So they decided to look for a wise man who lived in a cave to ask for advice.
The wise man listened patiently about the will. The wise man, after thinking about the dilemma for a while, brought his own duck and added it at 17. This increased the total to 18 ducks.
Now, he started to read the deceased father's will.
Half of 18 = 9.
So he gave 9 ducks
for the eldest son.
1/3 of 18 = 6.
So he gave 6 ducks
for the middle child.
And 1/9 of 18 = 2.
So he gave 2 ducks
for the youngest child.
Now add this:
9 + 6 + 2 = 17 and
That leaves 1 duck
that the sage has taken over.
MORAL: There is always a solution (despite the challenges). The attitude of negotiation and problem solving is to find the 18th duck, that is, common ground. When a person is able to find common ground, the problem is resolved. Sometimes it is difficult, but a resolution will be reached.
However, to reach a solution, the first step is to believe that there is a solution. If we think there is no solution, we will not be able to reach any!
The question is, what is Nigeria's 18th duck?
For lack of a better name and borrowed from how FDR successfully piloted America's ships away from the total collapse, I call the 18th Duck: NEW BUSINESS AND CULTURE FOR NIGERIA. Call it PMB MAGIC BOX. If you go.
It is a comprehensive economic package that seeks to free Nigeria from the underdevelopment in which the country has remained entangled for the past 40 years:
1, congratulations to the PMP for taking the first step to reduce the more than 1000 federal government agencies, implementing the Orosanye report. Maybe we will end up with 100. Which is better than where we are today. But, unfortunately, it will not take Nigeria out of the forest. The kind of challenge that confronts us today cannot be solved by tokenism, just a complete overhaul of the system in the PMB New Deal and Culture for the people of Nigeria will be enough.
2, the PMB must pick up the bull by the horn and implement FINANCIAL FEDERALISM. Crisis equals opportunity. This is a good opportunity for PMB to break free from unnecessary guilt and write your name in gold letters. He must free the states with the support of the National Assembly. The PMB must send a one-paragraph letter to the Governors: & # 39; My Dear Governors & # 39; oil money is no more – go defend yourself. Join each other if you think you can't survive on your own – everyone is free – there is no more monthly allocation from January 2021, generate your revenue. Keep it up. Pay your tax as agreed with the federal government. Become your dreams, live within your means. I am determined to save the small oil revenue for the future generation as part of my legacy to Nigeria. It is my desire to increase foreign reserves to about $ 300 billion when I leave office in 2023, so that, in the future, if this type of pandemic recurs, Nigerians will have something to turn to. Please use the next 7 months to plan and create an alternative strategy for your respective survival in the state. Good luck. PMB & # 39; & # 39;
The 36 states will automatically and voluntarily collapse into four or six viable BLOCKS of their own accord for economic survival. Each Block can then appoint a SECRETARY to coordinate its affairs. About 60% of the re-current expenses will be saved for START-UP infrastructure, education and development. There will be healthy competition between the economic blocs.
FDR took many bold steps like this that saved the United States in the 1930s from total collapse. FDR became an American hero after the war. The PMB could become the biggest leader Nigeria has ever had, depending on how it uses this monumental crisis.
3. Advertise the 4 most critical ministerial positions in the newspapers and conduct rigorous interviews with these candidates prior to appointment: (A) Minister of FOOD, whose main objective will be to make Nigeria a net food exporter in 3 years), (B) Minister of Innovation and start-ups, whose work will be midwife with the creation of 500,000 new companies per year, capable of employing ten employees each, (C) Minister of LIGHT, whose main objective will be to supply electricity 24/7 in three years (D) Minister of Reconstruction and Economic Development, whose main objective is to provide Nigeria with 21st century infrastructure based on the taxes collected. Submit their respective agenda to the public scrutiny of Nigerians using video conferencing technology to engage candidates before PMB makes its final decision.
In a war situation, the most competent military personnel become commanders – nepotism, ethnicity, paramount considerations do not enter the equation. Now we are in a war situation, let only the brightest and the best occupy the most sensitive positions and take us from the red to the blue ocean.
4, Senior Army officer retired and elder of the United States in his eighties, Colonel Peter Kolawole Obasa recommended some measures with which I agree. One: he said that since we have a minimum wage of N30K per month (which he says should be increased to N50K), the PMP NEW DEAL should include the maximum wage, as well as for government officials and politicians. The President will be the highest earner with a monthly salary of a maximum of N1.5 million per month (all-in). Second, road classification and ROAD-TAX inspection according to the size of the car. Three, revolution in the air. As he said: & # 39; in our skies, we will create some turbulence. Private jet owners in the country will pay a daily parking fee of $ 5,000, while the $ 10,000 take-off and landing fees per trip will take effect immediately. You want to import a private jet, okay. The import tax is 300% of the cost price paid in hard currency. So you pay what others pay to fly in Nigeria & # 39; & # 39 ;. I also agree with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar's recommendation that all aircraft (10 of them) in the presidential fleet be sold. Presidents of wealthier countries like the United Kingdom, Singapore and European countries fly commercial planes.
In addition to the president and governors, who can use a maximum of 4 official cars – all other government officials must have only one official car – including members of the National Assembly. Those who ride a 2.0-liter car pay N50K as a road tax per year, while those who ride an 8-liter engine pay up to N2 million of road tax annually. Whoever drives a car with less than 2.0 liters is exempt from taxes. Any country in which politics is the most viable profession and the most lucrative job – that nation is doomed. Any country that allows the kind of lifestyle that 1% lives here in Nigeria without a conscious and corresponding strategy for the redistribution of wealth is equally doomed.
5, The $ 3 trillion C-19 / CURE vaccine business: Nigeria will join the 100-meter competition in countries that are seriously looking for the C-19 VACCINE / CURE. One country put a price of $ 350 per bottle on its medicine. We have 7.5 billion potential customers worldwide. Do the math. The PMP will put $ 10 million on the table in May 2020 for diaspora Nigerian doctors to team up with their colleagues in Nigeria and research all the herbs and leaves that God gives in Nigeria that can cure COVID-19 and the future / emerging viruses. Any country with the most potent cure will become remarkably rich instantly. Senegal, Madagascar, Israel, France, United Kingdom, Germany, USA, India, China are all in the field looking for the C-19 HOLY GRAIL.
6 In addition, within the PMB Magic Box is the establishment of six modern Cattle Villages in the forest of Sambisa, Kano, Bauchi, Niger, Kaduna and another location. The tango of Fulani herdsmen must be solved wisely. All talks about the agricultural revolution in Nigeria will go nowhere without solving this problem of kidnapping successful farmers for rescue by some Fulani herders. Use Drone technology to plant and replant grasses to feed livestock in these six special villages. Make the well available to provide permanent water, build schools and supply electricity in these villages. Abolish open grazing – it is anachronistic, it is the main cause of hunger.
C-19 + Pastors kidnap farmers for rescue = Hunger = disaster.
PMB NEW BUSINESS = abundant livestock = abundant food crops = peace = prosperity
7, PLANTING 1 BILLION TRESS IN THE NORTH: If the main problem responsible for the mass migration of shepherds from the North to the South is the invasion of the desert, the solution is AFRESTATION. Today there is Drone technology to plant 50 million trees a day. Today there is a new water technology to compress normal atmospheric air into enough water for cows, grass and humans.
Today there is a robotic technology capable of planting grass on 10,000 hectares of land in one day. We can easily deploy these three new technologies in northern Nigeria and stop desertification. This will bring about uniform development across Nigeria. The North will become a net food exporter within 24 months.
We can grow the cow and the food in abundance without spilling blood. Today there is technology that can save Nigeria from the circle of violence.
STEVE JOBS WAY for NIGERIA
Steve Jobs, the first man to create the most valuable company in the world, the world's first trillion dollar company has something to teach us. His company, Apple, is seven times richer than Nigeria. In 2019, Apple had $ 250 billion cash reserves compared to Nigeria's $ 38 billion cash reserves for its 200 million inhabitants!
So if Steve Jobs wakes up today to rule Nigeria: what will he do differently? Steve will kill OIL, metaphorically speaking! He will announce and deliver NNPC, its subsidiaries and all government-run refineries to the most efficient company in the world to manage as an administrative consultant and give them 100% freedom. He will get Nigeria out of OPEC +. He will set two goals for management consultants: Work with joint venture partners to reduce the cost of producing a barrel of oil alongside the best in the category (from $ 30 to $ 12). Pump as much as we can from the ground and sell about 3 million barrels a day. Deposit everything
Nigeria's revenue from our foreign reserves as an economy for the rainy day. He will challenge the consultant to provide revenue of 300% of what Nigeria does today. The Consultant will only earn money when he delivers what the NNPC will deliver + X. His money comes from the extra money they generate: NNPC + X +1. Nigeria will share anything +1 at 80:20 in favor of Nigeria with the consultant.
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The monthly IGR of the Lagos state government in 1999 was N400million. Today, the state generates more than $ 25 billion a month. What has changed? LASG uses consultants to generate revenue. Governments around the world are notoriously bad business managers, even more so in Nigeria.
Steve Jobs killed the chicken (iPod) that laid the golden egg for Apple. An iPod was then equivalent to the price of 40 barrels of oil today and was being sold as a hot potato. He has sold millions around the world. But one day, to the surprise of the Apple Council, Steve announced that he wanted to kill the iPod. Everyone was shocked. They asked him. Steve told the Council: & * 39 * * If Apple doesn't kill the iPod by itself, new technologies and competition will kill it – and Apple would have lost both senses * & # 39; & # 39 ;. He discarded the iPod and merged it with a new product called the iPhone.
What lessons can Nigeria learn from Steve Jobs' mindset?
One, whether Nigeria likes it or not, the best future for oil was yesterday: it passed. If Nigeria does not kill oil from its mentality and calculation, Saudi Arabia is killing oil (Read: Vision of Saudi Arabia 2030), China will kill oil (read: Made-In-China-2025). China's electric vehicles, the killer gasoline vehicles are ready. Japan, Brazil and Europe are all killing oil with their climate change campaign and strategy.
The truth is: oil is terminally ill – if it survives for the next 15 years – it can spend the last 5 on a life support machine or a wheelchair.
Saudi Arabia and Russia know this. That is why they are behaving irrationally regardless of the survival and prosperity of Nigeria and other members of OPEC.
Steve Jobs created 4 new products to fill the void of the iPod (ie iPhone, iPad, iTunes and 21st century Mac).
PMB'S NEW BUSINESS AND CULTURE should challenge Governors to create their own iPhone (Agriculture), iPad (ICT) and Mac (mining, processing and finishing mineral resources in Nigeria). iTunes (Tourism and Manufacturing).
This is the moment of KAIRO in Nigeria. As William Shakespeare recommended … And we must take the chain when it serves or loses our endeavors.
Icema Reid, a Jamaican who read one of my articles recently sent me emotional feedback from Jamaica that the global community and the entire black race are eagerly awaiting Nigeria's manifestation on the world stage: “ the true Asian tiger (China) has awakened, it's time for the African Lion (real) (Nigeria) ROAR & # 39; & # 39; !!!!
Are we going to get serious now, or are we going to stop playing
Author: Tim Akano…
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