He was told that being strict about illegal immigration would condemn him among Hispanic voters.
Still president Trump challenged his predictions, from the moment he delivered his iconic speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2013 – alerting the Republican party that legalizing 11 million illegal immigrants was a political suicide – through the 2016 presidential election and in White House.
Now, nine months after his second election day, and despite a term in office White House which involved building a border wall, intensifying deportations and insulting some Latin American nations as "hole" countries, Mr. Trump it is stronger than ever among Hispanic voters, according to polls.
A poll ranks his approval rating at 44% and shows him winning 41% of Hispanic votes in direct confrontation with the senator. Bernard Sanders of Vermont. This would improve his 28% stake in 2016 and put him in contention with President George W. Bush for the majority of Hispanics' votes in a GO P candidate.
“Latinos have lost their fear of Donald Trump," said Alfonso Aguilar, who headed the Department of Homeland Security's citizenship office in the Bush administration and now heads the Latin Partnership for Conservative Principles.
Democrats also noticed.
Kristian Ramos, former spokesman for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, published a play in the Atlantic that sounded alarms about Mr. TrumpNumbers.
"Discontent with the president over the past three years has not led to an increase in support for the opposing party," she said.
Mr. Trump improved its position among Hispanics last week in two regular polls – the Politico / Morning Consult poll and the economist / YouGov poll. Last week, both had a 35% approval rating for the Hispanic disclosure of their national poll. This week, he is 39% on the Morning Consult survey and 38% on the YouGov survey.
Their best numbers came from a survey by Emerson College Polling last week. The research director told the Washington Times that Mr. Trump had an approval rate of 44% and in direct confrontation with Mr. Sanders, the main democrat, sir Trump obtained 41% support.
The 40% mark is an important threshold.
In 2004, running on a platform for legalizing illegal immigrants, Bush won 44% of the vote, according to the national exit poll. Some analysts said that it looked loud. They analyzed numbers from the state's exit poll to show that it won 40%.
The Annenberg National Electoral Survey raised Bush's total to 41%, while the William C. Velasquez Institute's post-election poll increased it to 35%.
In 2008, Senator John McCain lost the presidential race with 31% support among Hispanics. Mitt Romney lost four years later, getting only 27% support, according to the exit poll.
Romney's loss triggered a round of soul searching within the GO P.
The Republican National Committee, in its post-election autopsy report, said party politicians needed to adopt legalization. That message was released from CPAC in 2013, with speakers after speakers saying it was time to change the partyPosture of law and order.
So sir Trump walked to the stage.
He joked about President Barack Obama and his TV show "The Apprentice", complained about the loss of American manufacturing, told Republicans not to cut Social Security and Medicare – and told them to forget about legalizing illegal immigrants .
"You are on a suicide mission," he told CPAC, saying it was impossible for Republicans to outdo Democrats.
“The fact is, 11 million people will be voting for Democrats. You can be ahead, you can be the spearhead, you can do whatever you want, but each of those 11 million people will be voting for Democrat, ”he said.
He said that party It is necessary to look at legal immigrants from Europe and, in particular, those studying at American universities, so they are forced to leave in the end.
He has been remarkably consistent in the years since, promising in the 2016 campaign to build a border wall and intensify deportations and complaining that Mexico has sent rapists to the U.S.
As president, he was accused of dismembering families and locking up "children in cages" on the border and discussed with Mexico and Central America about the continued flow of illegal immigrants.
Hispanic voters also see an improving economy and tax cuts – and many fear Democratic alternatives to Mr. Trump.
"I don't think they think or behave differently than the average American. Immigration has been neutralized and, on other issues, they think the same," Mr. Aguilar said.
Lydia Camarillo, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute, questioned the value of most research at this point in 2020, pointing to the small subsample sizes that researchers use for Hispanics. The Morning Consult survey, which is one of the largest samples, surveyed 193 Hispanics, leaving a large margin of error.
Camarillo said he invested more in a recent survey by Univision / Latino Decisions, which specializes in Hispanic voters, and which showed Mr. Trump with only 27% support.
"I think 27% is right," she said.
Camarillo said the president maintains a support base among Hispanics who support abortion and those who support his tax cuts.
She said she expects an increase in Hispanic participation in this year's elections, although that depends on the efforts of the parties and whether Democrats are struggling to get their votes across the country.
She pointed to Michigan, where Mr. Trump won in 2016 by less than 15,000 votes. Camarillo said much more than many new Hispanic voters have registered with the state in recent years.
“They like what the president has done in the economy, support the choice of school and want border security, he said.
In addition, the Democrats' search for Mr. Trump it may have backfired, he said: “It was interesting during the impeachment, it really turned off Hispanics. They have repeatedly said they know a scam when they see one.
Those studying Hispanic voting look to Florida, a key place for GO P to build support.
A survey by the University of North Florida showed the president with 34% approval and gaining 24% to 33% of Latin American support in direct confrontations with leading Democrats.
That would be a slip-up compared to 2016, when exit polls showed that he won 35% of Hispanic voters in the state.
He points to the results of the state governor and U.S. Senate races in 2018, when Republican candidates won both races and received about 45% Hispanic support.